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July 16, 2008

Mathematically Confirmed: There Is No Climate Change Crisis

Here's something unlikely to make the cover of Time. From the Science & Public Policy Institute:

WASHINGTON (7-15-08) — Mathematical proof that there is no "climate crisis" appears today in a major, peer-reviewed paper in Physics and Society, a learned journal of the 10,000-strong American Physical Society, SPPI reports.
Christopher Monckton, who once advised Margaret Thatcher, demonstrates via 30 equations that computer models used by the UN's climate panel (IPCC) were pre-programmed with overstated values for the three variables whose product is "climate sensitivity" (temperature increase in response to greenhouse-gas increase), resulting in a 500-2000% overstatement of CO2's effect on temperature in the IPCC's latest climate assessment report, published in 2007.
Climate Sensitivity Reconsidered [http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/200807/index.cfm] demonstrates that later this century a doubling of the concentration of CO2 compared with pre-industrial levels will increase global mean surface temperature not by the 6 °F predicted by the IPCC but, harmlessly, by little more than 1 °F.

The paper reveals the following:

• The IPCC's 2007 climate summary overstated CO2's impact on temperature by 500-2000%;
• CO2 enrichment will add little more than 1 °F (0.6 °C) to global mean surface temperature by 2100;
• Not one of the three key variables whose product is climate sensitivity can be measured directly;
• The IPCC's values for these key variables are taken from only four published papers, not 2,500;
• The IPCC's values for each of the three variables, and hence for climate sensitivity, are overstated;
• "Global warming" halted ten years ago, and surface temperature has been falling for seven years;
• Not one of the computer models relied upon by the IPCC predicted so long and rapid a cooling;
• The IPCC inserted a table into the scientists' draft, overstating the effect of ice-melt by 1000%;
• It was proved 50 years ago that predicting climate more than two weeks ahead is impossible;
• Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and Pluto warmed at the same time as Earth warmed;
• In the past 70 years the Sun was more active than at almost any other time in the past 11,400 years.

Someone had better get this news to Al Gore, since he won't be seeing it on TV. I'm sure he'll want to apologize for causing a lot of senseless hysteria over nothing.

al-gore-desperate.jpg
In the absence of warming, the Goracle resorts to desperate measures.

On a tip from Smoke TNT.

Posted by Van Helsing at July 16, 2008 7:30 AM

Comments

You stupid wingnuts. The fact that Global Warming isn't happening only PROOVES Global Warming is happening.

Posted by: A Nonny McMoonbat at July 16, 2008 8:02 AM

It's good to hear that the sky ISN'T falling. That the Antarctic ice sheets AREN'T melting.

But wait. The source cited in the article, the Republican-sponsored "Science and Public Policy Institute", founded for the express purpose of casting doubt on human-caused climate change includes the conclusion that human activity WILL contribute to global warming:

"Climate Sensitivity Reconsidered demonstrates that later this century a doubling of the concentration of CO2 compared with pre-industrial levels will increase global mean surface temperature not by the 6 °F predicted by the IPCC but, harmlessly, by little more than 1 °F."

So, the article in essence states taht humans ARE contributing to global warming. We're just arguing about how much.

Posted by: Phac Checer at July 16, 2008 8:04 AM

It's good to hear that the sky ISN'T falling. That the Antarctic ice sheets AREN'T melting.

But wait. The source cited in the article, the Republican-sponsored "Science and Public Policy Institute", founded for the express purpose of casting doubt on human-caused climate change includes the conclusion that human activity WILL contribute to global warming:

"Climate Sensitivity Reconsidered demonstrates that later this century a doubling of the concentration of CO2 compared with pre-industrial levels will increase global mean surface temperature not by the 6 °F predicted by the IPCC but, harmlessly, by little more than 1 °F."

So, the article in essence states that humans ARE contributing to global warming. We're just arguing about how much.

Posted by: Phac Checer at July 16, 2008 8:04 AM

We're just arguing about how much.

Not quite. We're arguing about whether it is a catastrophe that warrants gutting our economy to correct. We're also arguing the plausibility of the doomsday scenarios painted by the Warmers if in fact their warming models are true (which they aren't). We're further arguing against the continued intrusion of the government into the lives of private citizens, using the environment and global warming as the means to achieve that end.

So you are correct, the sky isn't falling, the polar bears will live on, and Al Gore is still a con artist and a fraud.

Posted by: CoderInCrisis at July 16, 2008 9:39 AM

Not quite. We're arguing about whether it is a catastrophe that warrants gutting our economy to correct.

Correct.

the sky isn't falling, the polar bears will live on, and Al Gore is still a con artist and a fraud.

Also correct.

Posted by: V the K at July 16, 2008 9:42 AM

You are correct that understanding the rate of global warming should inform policy decisions. This particular paper, however, should not be taken as the final word on the subject. He starts off the paper with a global surface temperature plot with an inadequate description of its inherent errors, limited global coverage, and variability over a more meaningful time period. The second plot compares actual global warming to estimates made in 1988. Using such an old prediction is silly. Finally, figure 7 shows an apparent non-correlation of CO2 to global temperature over the last 600 million years. Our understanding of climate and its measurement may well be on shaky ground. But ignoring the much better and pertinent data over the last 420,000 years (corresponding to ice core data) is an obvious problem.

Posted by: Dan Packman at July 16, 2008 10:21 AM

http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/

^the final word, proving this hoax one temperature station at a time.

Posted by: furballz at July 16, 2008 10:32 AM

So, basically, Democrats (and John McCain) are willing to devastate the economy because it might shave half a degree off the temperature in a hundred years... but they won't let us drill for oil because the benefit would not be "immediate."

I think some people are truly too stupid to realize how truly stupid they are.

Posted by: V the K at July 16, 2008 10:35 AM

I dont believe much of what McCain says in regards to fighting global warming. He is probably saying what he says because he thinks it might get him a few extra votes from followers of the Goracle. Obama on the other hand believes all the GW BS heart and soul and would rubber stamp whatever the Democratically controlled Congress sends him.

Anyone else getting sick of seeing those TV ads for T Boone Pickens trying to pump up the stocks for his investments in windmills and solar panel companies?
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-thu-t-boone-pickens-jul10,0,5676645.story
""Part of this play is to create his legacy. It's also a part of his strategy to fill his own pocketbook."

$2 billion invested"

Pickens has his good points but he is off base on this one. Does he really think we are going to be running our cars on solar and wind power any time soon? He should be promoting offshore drilling.

Posted by: Anonymous at July 16, 2008 11:02 AM

Anyone else getting sick of seeing those TV ads for T Boone Pickens trying to pump up the stocks for his investments in windmills and solar panel companies?.

Yeah, I figured it was something like that... Like NBC's "Green Weeks" intended to prime the market for General Electric's windmills.

The drop in oil prices lately is interesting. I think Soros and the Saudis/Iranians are getting nervous that Republicans have a campaign issue and the US might be serious about energy independence.

Posted by: V the K at July 16, 2008 11:22 AM

@Dan Packman

The second plot compares actual global warming to estimates made in 1988. Using such an old prediction is silly.

Why is it silly? All we have to work with now are more estimates. How do you guarantee they're any more accurate than the old ones? What will you have to say when 20 years from now the current estimates don't pan out either?

Posted by: Rob Banks at July 16, 2008 2:14 PM

>...computer models used by the UN's climate panel (IPCC) were pre-programmed with overstated values for the three variables whose product is "climate sensitivity"...>

Is this the same "scientific method" they used to determine that cigarettes cause cancer by forcing lab rats to smoke the equivilent of FIVE CARTONS a day?

Posted by: KHarn at July 16, 2008 4:04 PM

Hello to all my US mates,

Just spoke to the senator responsible for introducing a carbon trading scheme here in Australia. (Talk back radio is a wonderful thing...) I asked her what the government's target was for CO2 reduction. The answer? I still can't work out due to her 'spin'.

But, they are going to tax fuel, and offset the tax with a reduction in fuel excise for three years. After that, who knows?

Save us all from lefty governments.....and greenies..

Posted by: Aussie-John at July 16, 2008 6:03 PM

John in Australia: I hate to say it, but it looks like we're going the same route as you all, now. Just about everybody here in the USA has "bought into" this absolute garbage (politicians, I understand, since they have to be seen as current and on top of the latest trends, though that's no excuse for being a moron). But the AGW'ers would seem to have a problem, since all indications are it's actually getting colder.

The best finding of the SPPI report: "Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon [Triton], and Pluto warmed at the same time as Earth warmed . . ." Uh, oh! The AGW'ers may actually have to acknowledge the existence of the Sun! Big, big trouble for the "man-made" global warming crapola, since they seem to believe that the Sun has no effect whatsoever on the Earth's climate, as incredibly stupid as that sounds.

Posted by: jc14 at July 16, 2008 9:11 PM

John, the assumption that observed changes on "Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon..and Triton" are warming are unwarranted. Total solar irradiance is difficult to measure, but doesn't seem to be increasing.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/05/on-veizers-celestial-climate-driver/langswitch_lang/index.php?p=192

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/08/did-the-sun-hit-record-highs-over-the-last-few-decades/langswitch_lang/de

Posted by: Dan Packman at July 17, 2008 9:41 AM

The problem with this article by Chris Monckton is that a) he isn't a scientist or a mathematician, let alone a physicist capable of making these mathematical predictions with any sort of credibility, and b) this article was published in the *forum newsletter* of the APS, called FPS. It is not a peer-reviewed article, nor was it actually published in the APS journal.

Lastly, Monckton is an infamous and well-established climate change skeptic, while the SPPI is a biased establishment funded by ExxonMobil.

Posted by: Allison at July 17, 2008 11:25 AM

jc14 said:
" the assumption that observed changes on "Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon..and Triton" are warming are unwarranted. Total solar irradiance is difficult to measure, but doesn't seem to be increasing. "


How is observed data unwarranted? As to the sun, it dropped off in sun spots and the earth temperature leveled off and then dropped. Sun spots are a scientific indicator of solar output. Less spots, less output. Earth temperature dropping at the same time is not a coincidence.

Posted by: chuck in st paul at July 17, 2008 3:47 PM

Packman

Wow, where to start. If all else fails (and this seems to be the case) pull out the "money from big oil" card, even if you can't prove Mr. Monckton personally received funding. Typical. Next, throw the scientific method out the window and discount anything he says because he's a skeptic. Nice.

If there were no merit to Mr. Monckton's arguments would Physics & Society publish his paper and also state "There is a considerable presence within the scientific community of people who do not agree with the IPCC conclusion that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are very probably likely to be primarily responsible for the global warming that has occurred since the Industrial Revolution." Some consensus...

Posted by: BK at July 18, 2008 9:00 AM

RE: observed changes on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune etc.
If you read the references I posted, you will find that the changes on these bodies are not obviously warming nor do their climate systems have such similarity to earth that we can immediately make an generalities to other bodies.

As to Monckton, I addressed a few of his points directly. It was another poster who raised other issues. Just because he is in an increasingly small group questioning global warming doesn't make him right.

Posted by: Dan Packman at July 18, 2008 10:52 AM