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June 25, 2007

More From Reid Bryson

From a recent interview with The Capital Times, here's University of Wisconsin at Madison's Reid Bryson, known as the father of scientific climatology, on the topic of the weather getting slightly warmer:

[T]here is no credible evidence that it is due to mankind and carbon dioxide. We've been coming out of a Little Ice Age for 300 years. We have not been making very much carbon dioxide for 300 years. It's been warming up for a long time.

On the impact of human-generated CO2 on the temperature:

It's like there is an elephant charging in and you worry about the fact that there is a fly sitting on its head. It's just a total misplacement of emphasis. It really isn't science because there's no really good scientific evidence.

On the alleged "consensus" that the global warming hoax is real:

Consensus doesn't prove anything, in science or anywhere else, except in democracy, maybe.

On why many scientists play along with the hoax:

There is a lot of money to be made in this. If you want to be an eminent scientist you have to have a lot of grad students and a lot of grants. You can't get grants unless you say, "Oh global warming, yes, yes, carbon dioxide."

On the media's habit of harvesting juicy global warming quotes from clueless first-year graduate students:

And that goes in the paper as "scientists say."

On the cult-like demand for conformity to a belief system that is not based on reality:

There is very little truth to what is being said and an awful lot of religion. It's almost a religion. Where you have to believe in anthropogenic (or man-made) global warming or else you are nuts.

On whether he's actually sat through Al Gore's A Convenient Lie:

Don't make me throw up. It is not science. It is not true.

Now the rebuttal, from Kool-Aid–guzzler Galen McKinley, an assistant professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, also at UW-Madison:

If you saw smoke in your house, it would be irresponsible not to get your family out, right?

That pretty much sums up the climate change apocalypse: suppositional hysteria based on imaginary smoke.

prof-reid-bryson.jpg
Reid Bryson, voice of sanity in a world going mad.

On a tip from Kevin.

Posted by Van Helsing at June 25, 2007 5:34 PM

Comments

For a short time during the 1970s, a number of climatologists theorized that the Earth was heading towards an ice-age. Leading this group was Reid Bryson, whose work was the primary inspiration for a number of CIA reports and the book The Weather Conspiracy. At one point, Mr. Bryson wrote that:

“There is very important climatic change going on right now, and it’s not
merely something of academic interest.” Bryson warned, “It is something that, if it continues, will affect the whole human occupation of the earth – like a billion people starving. The effects are already showing up in a rather drastic way.”

However, this theory was soon abandoned. Bryson recanted his earlier warnings and eventually retired (in 1986, by my calculations). Meanwhile, the above quote became fodder for a million GW Denier websites, evidence that scientists "can’t decide whether we face an ice age or warming".

And then, just last week, Reid Bryson pops up in the "Wisconsin Energy Cooperative News" , the magazine of the Wisconsin Energy Cooperative, an association of Wisconsin energy producers. In "The Faithful Heretic", he spends a several pages trash-talking the science behind anthropogenic Global Warming, employing most of the standard skeptical talking points.

And suddenly, the guy once ridiculed for being wrong about Global Cooling has become a prophet for GW Deniers everywhere!

Posted by: brewski at June 25, 2007 6:45 PM

McKinley is a fool, unless he's coming up on his tenure decision in the next year or so. If he's a baby (i.e., a starting ass prof), he's just bet his academic career on a fad that will be an embarrassment by the time tenure-time rolls around. It's kind of like working on cold fusion, polywater, or other intellectual Ponzi schemes; get in and out before everyone realizes it's crap.

If McKinley doesn't come up for tenure within the next two years, he should save time and put in his application to Burger King right now.

Posted by: Jay Guevara at June 25, 2007 6:48 PM

It's so funny to me that people have to give labels like "GW Deniers", to put us in our place. hahaha...

I guess you told us.

Just sit tight, little man, when you grow up I think you'll have seen your fair share of political b.s. and not be so gullible for everything your dear old professor told you that first semester in college.

Posted by: NudeGayWhalesForJesus at June 25, 2007 9:01 PM

Why haven't the alarmist begun drawing up plans to relocate cities (New York, San Francisco, etc) from low lying areas?

I mean if GW is real and GW alarmists take themselves seriously - they'd better get cracking, right?

As for Galen McKinley, he (she?) hasn't noticed the smoke on Mars?

Posted by: Jimbo at June 26, 2007 5:05 AM

Brewski, first, Bryson is NOT the only scientist who does not believe in AGW. There are many others.
Second, global cooling is not entirely out of the question. At least one scientist says there is reason to believe that it could happen
There is just so much that we do not know for sure. As R. Timothy Patterson said, the science of climate change is still in its infancy.

Posted by: A. B. at June 26, 2007 9:46 AM

Graduate students DO NOT ANSWER PHONE CALLS from the media. Talk to any department anywhere. It simply doesn't happen. Just because Bryson says it, doesn't mean it's true. University departments have excellent support staff that answer phones (try calling the department of AOS's phone number at UW and see who you get), and they would never transfer the media to a grad student's office. It's a blatant lie.

Graduate students are also not clueless. They know a hell of a lot more than you do about this and most issues. 6-12 years of professional education tends to have that effect.

Posted by: Jacquelyn Gill at July 4, 2007 1:55 PM

Bryson loved to talk to the press back then, almost every article on climate trends seem to quote him. This continued for years to the point I wondered who else was in the field. He was an early and vocal proponent of the idea that humans could change climate.

Others scientists came to agree, but no one knew what the bottom line would be. Two opposing effects were at work. The relative importance of dust and aerosols (cooling) vs. CO2 (warming) was not well understood. That was a big impetus to built climate models. Bryson has always believed the former were more important and IMO can't bring himself to admit that his favorite theory has been eclipsed.

That is not something new for him. Here's a quote about this bull-headedness from historian Spencer Weart's book - The Discovery of Global Warming, (available online too). It was sponsored by the American Institute for Physics and published by Harvard U. Press in 2003, long before Bryson decided to break his self-imposed silence.

Aerosols: Effects of Haze and Cloud
"Bryson and his co-workers continued to insist that smoke from burning fossil fuels and forest clearing had a powerful cooling effect. After all, the haze visibly dimmed the solar radiation that reaches the surface. They expected pollution would more than balance the effects of increased CO2 (since the more fuel humanity burned, the more aerosols were emitted along with the gas). Taking everything into account, they calculated that "an expected slight decrease in surface temperature" was already underway.(38) Bryson would not concede that his group's observations, analysis of data, and theoretical understanding were too uncertain to produce a definitive answer. The real value of this work was not in the purported findings, but in the way it forced scientists to pay attention to a topic that was indeed highly important, although in ways that they would not work out reliably for decades more."

Posted by: John in IL at July 15, 2007 10:22 AM